Mathematics 7 (Grade 6/7)
5: Statistics & Probability (7.SP)
Students build on their previous work with single data distributions to compare two data distributions and address questions about differences between populations. They begin informal work with random sampling to generate data sets and learn about the importance of representative samples for drawing inferences.
In Mathematics 7, students move from concentrating on analysis of data to production of data, understanding that good answers to statistical questions depend upon a good plan for collecting data relevant to the questions of interest. Because statistically sound data production is based on random sampling, a probabilistic concept, students must develop some knowledge of probability before launching into sampling. Their introduction to probability is based on seeing probabilities of chance events as longrun relative frequencies of their occurrence, and many opportunities to develop the connection between theoretical probability models and empirical probability approximations. This connection forms the basis of statistical inference. With random sampling as the key to collecting good data, students begin to differentiate between the variability in a sample and the variability inherent in a statistic computed from a sample when samples are repeatedly selected from the same population. This understanding of variability allows them to make rational decisions, say, about how different a proportion of “successes” in a sample is likely to be from the proportion of “successes” in the population or whether medians of samples from two populations provide convincing evidence that the medians of the two populations also differ.
In Mathematics 7, students move from concentrating on analysis of data to production of data, understanding that good answers to statistical questions depend upon a good plan for collecting data relevant to the questions of interest. Because statistically sound data production is based on random sampling, a probabilistic concept, students must develop some knowledge of probability before launching into sampling. Their introduction to probability is based on seeing probabilities of chance events as longrun relative frequencies of their occurrence, and many opportunities to develop the connection between theoretical probability models and empirical probability approximations. This connection forms the basis of statistical inference. With random sampling as the key to collecting good data, students begin to differentiate between the variability in a sample and the variability inherent in a statistic computed from a sample when samples are repeatedly selected from the same population. This understanding of variability allows them to make rational decisions, say, about how different a proportion of “successes” in a sample is likely to be from the proportion of “successes” in the population or whether medians of samples from two populations provide convincing evidence that the medians of the two populations also differ.
What should my child know and be able to do?
Students will:
Use random sampling to draw inferences about a population.
7.SP.A.1
Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences.
7.SP.A.2
Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. For example, estimate the mean word length in a book by randomly sampling words from the book; predict the winner of a school election based on randomly sampled survey data. Gauge how far off the estimate or prediction might be.
Draw informal comparative inferences about two populations.
7.SP.B.3
Informally assess the degree of visual overlap of two numerical data distributions with similar variabilities, measuring the difference between the centers by expressing it as a multiple of a measure of variability. For example, the mean height of players on the basketball team is 10 cm greater than the mean height of players on the soccer team, about twice the variability (mean absolute deviation) on either team; on a dot plot, the separation between the two distributions of heights is noticeable.
7.SP.B.4
Use measures of center and measures of variability for numerical data from random samples to draw informal comparative inferences about two populations. For example, decide whether the words in a chapter of a seventhgrade science book are generally longer than the words in a chapter of a fourthgrade science book.
Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models.
7.SP.C.5
Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
7.SP.C.6
Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
7.SP.C.7
Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
7.SP.C.7.A
Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
7.SP.C.7.B
Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land openend down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
7.SP.C.8
Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation
Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.
7.SP.C.8.B
Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., "rolling double sixes"), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.
7.SP.C.8.C
Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events. For example, use random digits as a simulation tool to approximate the answer to the question: If 40% of donors have type A blood, what is the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type A blood?
Students will:
Use random sampling to draw inferences about a population.
7.SP.A.1
Understand that statistics can be used to gain information about a population by examining a sample of the population; generalizations about a population from a sample are valid only if the sample is representative of that population. Understand that random sampling tends to produce representative samples and support valid inferences.
 Check for Understanding: Valid Claims
 Review/Rewind: Reasonable Samples
 Enrichment Tasks: Election Poll, Variation 1  Election Poll, Variation 2
7.SP.A.2
Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. For example, estimate the mean word length in a book by randomly sampling words from the book; predict the winner of a school election based on randomly sampled survey data. Gauge how far off the estimate or prediction might be.
 Check for Understanding: Making Inferences from Random Samples
 Review/Rewind: Inferring Population Mean from Sample Mean
 Enrichment Tasks: Estimating the Mean State Area  Election Poll, Variation 3
Draw informal comparative inferences about two populations.
7.SP.B.3
Informally assess the degree of visual overlap of two numerical data distributions with similar variabilities, measuring the difference between the centers by expressing it as a multiple of a measure of variability. For example, the mean height of players on the basketball team is 10 cm greater than the mean height of players on the soccer team, about twice the variability (mean absolute deviation) on either team; on a dot plot, the separation between the two distributions of heights is noticeable.
 Check for Understanding: Comparing Distributions
 Review/Rewind: Comparing Distributions with Dot Plots
 Enrichment Tasks: Offensive Lineman*  College Athletes*
7.SP.B.4
Use measures of center and measures of variability for numerical data from random samples to draw informal comparative inferences about two populations. For example, decide whether the words in a chapter of a seventhgrade science book are generally longer than the words in a chapter of a fourthgrade science book.
 Check for Understanding: Comparing Distributions
 Review/Rewind: Measures of Center  Exploring Mean and Median
 Enrichment Tasks: Offensive Lineman*  College Athletes*
Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models.
7.SP.C.5
Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
 Check for Understanding: Comparing Probability
 Review/Rewind: Intro to Theoretical Probability  Intuitive Sense about Probability
 Enrichment Tasks: Stay or Switch?
7.SP.C.6
Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its longrun relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
 Check for Understanding: Experimental Probability
 Review/Rewind: Predicting with Probability
 Enrichment Tasks: Tossing Cylinders*  Heads or Tails*
7.SP.C.7
Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
 Check for Understanding: Probability 1  Probability Models
 Review/Rewind: Simple Probability
 Enrichment Tasks: Rolling Dice*
7.SP.C.7.A
Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
 Check for Understanding: Probability 1
 Review/Rewind: Simple Probability Yellow Marble  Experimental Probability
 Enrichment Tasks: Stay or Switch?  How Many Buttons?*
7.SP.C.7.B
Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land openend down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
 Check for Understanding: Simple Probability
 Review/Rewind: Using Probability Models to make Predictions
7.SP.C.8
Find probabilities of compound events using organized lists, tables, tree diagrams, and simulation
 Check for Understanding: Probabilities of Compound Events  The Counting Principle  Sample Spaces for Compound Events
 Review/Rewind: Tree Diagrams  Dependent Probability
 Enrichment Tasks: Red, Green, or Blue?  Waiting Times*
Understand that, just as with simple events, the probability of a compound event is the fraction of outcomes in the sample space for which the compound event occurs.
 Check for Understanding: Dependent Probability
 Review/Rewind: Compound Probability
 Enrichment Tasks: Sitting Across from Each Other*  Tetrahedral Dice*
7.SP.C.8.B
Represent sample spaces for compound events using methods such as organized lists, tables and tree diagrams. For an event described in everyday language (e.g., "rolling double sixes"), identify the outcomes in the sample space which compose the event.
 Check for Understanding: Probabilities of Compound Events  The Counting Principle  Sample Spaces for Compound Events
 Review/Rewind: Sample Spaces for Compound Events
 Enrichment Tasks: Sitting Across from Each Other*  Tetrahedral Dice*
7.SP.C.8.C
Design and use a simulation to generate frequencies for compound events. For example, use random digits as a simulation tool to approximate the answer to the question: If 40% of donors have type A blood, what is the probability that it will take at least 4 donors to find one with type A blood?
 Review/Rewind: Designing a Probability Simulation
What are some signs of student mastery?

Tools & Technology
NCTM's Advanced Data Grapher can be used to build and analyze data using box plots, scatterplots, histograms, stemandleaf plots, and bubble graphs. You can enter multiple rows and columns of data, select which set(s) to display in a graph, and choose the type of representation. 'What's a dot plot?' See if this resource and accompanying video help deepen your understanding. Probabilities Tour: Students will model a realworld probability simulation involving a music band. Using their knowledge of probability, students will attempt to make the highest profit from the band's performances in various cities. 
More 4 U
View a portion of a lesson in which students explore probability, identifying and creating examples of independent and dependent events. 